The political crisis in Madagascar significantly escalated over the weekend as an elite military unit claimed it had taken control of the country’s armed forces, plunging the Indian Ocean Island nation into its deepest crisis in over a decade. As President Andry Rajoelina denounced what he called “an illegal and forcible attempt to seize power” in a televised address Sunday, the consequences of this power struggle coursed through a country already dealing with weeks of youth-led protests in the streets and deepening economic turmoil.
From Protests to Mutiny: How the Crisis Unfolded
This crisis began nearly three weeks of nearly daily protests led by young Malagasy citizens, many self-identifying as “Gen Z Madagascar” who took to the streets of Antananarivo first to protest electricity and water shortages and then to call for deeper political change. The protests have grown in size and intensity, in part as a result of anger over rising unemployment, alleged government corruption, and the cost-of-living crisis in one of the poorest countries in the world.
On Saturday, the situation boiled over when soldiers from the elite CAPSAT military unit, a group of administrative and technical officers with a history of supporting Rajoelina’s ascent to power in 2009, walked off their posts and rode in, joining the anti-government demonstrators in the capital. They received a heroes’ welcome, greeted, and cheered by jubilant protesters waving Malagasy flags. They dramatically announced their refusal to shoot on demonstrators and then encouraged others in the military to refuse to carry out orders to shoot from their commanders that they felt were illegal.
The Sunday Shock: “We Control the Army Now”
On Sunday, the CAPSAT unit released a shocking video express release: “Effective immediately, all orders of the Malagasy Army; land, air or navy will originate from our headquarters.” They appointed General Demosthene Pikulas the Chief of Staff of CAPSAT, filling a position that was recently vacated when other high-ranking military leads were removed. Meanwhile, literally thousands of Gen Z youth were gathered in historic May 13 Square, the iconic and symbolic heart of Madagascar’s political life, inside police barricades and – in effect – a police curfew.
President Rajoelina wasted no time calling a national emergency council, and immediately followed up by addressing the nation. He said, “an attempt, by illegal and extra-constitutional means, to seize power is presently underway.” He asked for unity, and earlier, he was appealing for dialogue, but if there was any doubt of his position, President Rajoelina was not going to allow a coup in the form of military takeover of power.
Violence and Uncertainty
Violence erupted between gendarmes and protesters, and among gendarmes and mutinous troops outside the CAPSAT barracks and protest sites across Antananarivo. Reports that Gendarmes exchanged gunfire with mutinous troops suggested at least one troop and perhaps more numerous wounded or killed demonstrators for whom casualty numbers remain difficult to verify. For its part, the United Nations reports at least 22 deaths, and about 100 injuries, by civilian protestors across Madagascar since the beginning of protests, numbers in the orders of what the government officially reports.
While CAPSAT officers asked for nonviolence, the very public break from the government raises the volumes on fear of a full military split from their loyalty – a “coup within a coup,” as one analyst put it. To date, there has been no other uniformed military officer reporting from within a unit, or chain of command representation giving orders or who officer(s) were providing orders, aside from recent CAPSAT comments, which leaves Madagascar in risky limbo.
A History Repeated: The Shadow of 2009
The elite CAPSAT unit’s closure is particularly poignant, as CAPSAT was an elite military unit that played a pivotal role in Rajoelina’s overthrow of President Marc Ravalomanana in 2009. CAPSAT’s support for the young “former disk jockey,” who was elected mayor of Antananarivo, successfully delivered the presidency for Rajoelina. CAPSAT is acting to disrupt repression, in a stunning turn of repeating history.
In their own words, their press release directly reprimanded police and gendarmerie for “heavy handed actions,” and various soldiers stated they regret becoming dynamic “sycophants” serving those in power: “We submitted to the powers above and became their sycophants by carrying out orders, even illegal orders, instead of protecting the population and their property,” said a uniformed officer on social media.
Protesters’ Demands, and the Specter of a Power Vacuum
Protesters, particularly youth, as well labor advocates and university students have been united and organized the civilian coalition at the heart of the community. They remain adamant and rallying around their core demands for Rajoelina’s resignation, apologies for violent treatment of protestors, and the dissolution of both the electoral commission and senate. This coalition has grown together out of the inspiration of youth-led uprisings in Nepal and Sri Lanka, and meanwhile, rejecting the calls from the government for dialogue in recent days.
“There will be no dialogue with a regime that daily represses those who dare to speak up for justice” was called out in a widely circulated a public statement by Gen Z Madagascar.
International Alarm and Calls for Dialogue
The crisis worsens as the unease arises from regional leaders and the global perspective of the African Union and the United Nations. Analysts are increasingly worried about a potential course of events that could extend the crisis, or even take Madagascar into civil war, without negotiating a political solution in the near term. The economic value is also in play here: severe poverty is endemic, and ending up in a coup-style situation of accommodation from independence presents a possible association to a power vacuum that can have severe implications for a stricken country with critical export contexts and humanitarian programs as has been reported.
Following on, France headquartered with strong colonial ties issued a call for restraint, issuing both parties to respect constitutional due process and human rights.
Government’s Next Move—And the Uncertain Road Ahead
As the Government of Madagascar remains in a time of emergency session, as Rajoelina and his new military-appointed Prime Minister General Rhin Fortat Zisambo assert to remain in charge. The sheer degree of challenge to Rajoelina in clear relief: he must refrain the state from violence while remaining in control in a time where key power-assuming apparatus (military forces and orders, police order, and party order) are suddenly placed subject to question.
Even still, in certain appeal to both being careful and the order of the law, the resolve of the protestors is strong, and now showing signs of fortitude of mutinous soldiers is set to march rising forward, as this Sunday nears dusk in the dusk of one day toward the next in Antananarivo.
Madagascar at a Crossroads
“Crisis deepens in Madagascar: Military Unit Claims Control, Rajoelina Denounces Coup!” suggests a country on a tipping point. In a situation for power, a tipping point for which the citizens demanding justice outlines: in the days ahead, confirm yet again whether Rajoelina cannot fully hold the practice of office against discontent, or whether the recently closed democratic steps of Madagascar can withstand another crisis.
The damage toward jumping into chaos, thankfully, appears a real and present possibility, however the spirit and resolve of youth of Madagascar and in some cases the military faction that thinks they are above the orders of the law, may see this as a new chapter of what may await for the people of Madagascar.
In relation to timing, the only thing that remains to be seen tomorrow in Antananarivo, as the last act for one day closes, potential what the rules of engagement of an unprecedented challenge of political power may hold for the fate of Madagascar for generations to come.