Polling stations opened across Ethiopia on Monday morning in a closely watched general election that will test the country’s fragile political transition but is widely expected to hand Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party another commanding majority. The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has declared June 1 a national holiday, closing most government offices to encourage turnout as an estimated 50 million registered voters are invited to choose all 547 members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives and new regional councils.
How voting is taking place
The NEBE says Ethiopia’s seventh general election is formally a nationwide vote for all 547 federal seats, alongside contests for regional and city councils. More than 10,900 candidates have registered, including 2,198 for parliament and 8,736 for regional legislatures, according to analysis by the Robert Lansing Institute.
Polling stations are due to operate from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., with voters’ thumbs inked after they cast their ballot, following procedures similar to earlier elections. NEBE has ordered all federal and regional government offices closed, except for essential services such as hospitals, emergency response, hotels, and transport, to ensure officials and civil servants can vote.
Elections are held under a first‑past‑the‑post system in single‑member constituencies, meaning the candidate with the most votes in each district wins, even without an absolute majority. Ballot boxes are to be sealed and their padlock numbers recorded in front of party agents and observers once the last voter has cast a ballot, before counting begins at the polling station level.
NEBE has not given an exact timetable for final results, but in previous cycles provisional tallies have started to emerge within days, with national aggregates taking weeks in remote areas.
A high‑stakes test for Abiy and the Prosperity Party
Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (PP) enters election day as the overwhelming favorite. In the last general election in 2021, PP and its allies won roughly 96–97 percent of the seats, according to international election trackers, after major opposition parties boycotted or were barred from key regions.
Polling is limited and independent surveys are scarce, but Al Jazeera and leading African think tanks report a broad consensus among analysts that the ruling party is “almost certain” to retain a large majority in 2026. The Lansing Institute characterizes the vote as one of “controlled continuity amid war, fragmentation and regional risk,” arguing that existing power structures and fragmented opposition mean “the 2026 Ethiopian election is unlikely to produce regime change.”
Abiy, who came to power in 2018 promising political opening and economic reform, now heads a party that already holds more than 500 of 547 seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives. Another landslide would secure him a new five‑year term under a constitutional framework that has recently been amended to shift from a purely parliamentary system toward a more presidential model, further entrenching executive power.
Security fears and regions left behind
Election day is unfolding against a backdrop of violent conflict and insecurity that threaten both turnout and the credibility of the vote.
The Associated Press and regional outlets report that some 50 million people are expected to vote out of a population of about 130 million but acknowledge that millions more may not be able to participate because of unrest in the populous regions of Amhara and Oromia, as well as lingering instability in areas affected by the Tigray war.
In past elections, constituencies in conflict zones have seen voting delayed or cancelled; IFES and NEBE records from 2021 show that in 79 constituencies, including the entire Tigray region, polls were postponed indefinitely and held months later, if at all. Analysts fear a similar pattern in 2026, with the National Election Board possibly scheduling “make‑up” elections or leaving some seats vacant.
The Journal of Democracy describes the country’s elections as “more like performative rituals than democratic contests,” warning that in the current context, “these hollow exercises are becoming more dangerous” because violence and fragmentation raise the cost of dissent without delivering meaningful choice.
Fragmented opposition and questions of fairness
Since Ethiopia’s 1995 constitution was adopted, the ruling party, first under the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and now under the Prosperity Party, has consistently captured more than 95 percent of parliamentary seats, with 2005 as a partial exception when opposition parties won about a third of seats before a violent crackdown.
Today’s opposition landscape is fractured. Some parties have chosen to boycott, citing detentions and legal obstacles; others are competing but hampered by limited media access, funding, and the inability to campaign in conflict‑prone areas.
A 2025 analysis in The Conversation concluded that “without reforms, the vote may not be free or fair,” noting that:
- The ruling party controls most state media and benefits from public resources.
- Security forces have detained opposition figures and activists under anti‑terror laws.
- The electoral board remains formally independent but operates in a political environment dominated by the executive.
Election‑support organizations such as IFES have in the past highlighted procedural improvements, updated voter rolls, training, observer accreditation, but stress that systemic imbalances in access and security mean Ethiopia’s elections still fall short of international standards for competitive democracy.
Inside the polling stations
On the ground, election day in Ethiopia combines familiar rituals of African voting with the country’s particular constraints.
The ACE Electoral Knowledge Network’s case study of Ethiopian voting operations describes scenes expected to repeat today: long queues forming before dawn, with voters presenting identification, receiving folded ballots, and marking their choice in a private booth, with an X or, for illiterate citizens, an inked thumbprint. Polling officials are instructed to admit all voters who have joined the queue by 6:00 p.m., even if voting extends into the evening.
Election observers from domestic civil‑society groups and, where permitted, international organizations stand alongside party agents to monitor the process, though their access to conflict‑affected areas is limited. Past reports have documented irregularities ranging from ballot‑stuffing to intimidation at polling sites, yet also pockets of orderly and transparent voting, illustrating the election’s uneven quality across regions.
Controlled continuity, or a chance for course correction?
For Abiy’s supporters, a strong showing on election day will be read as a mandate to continue his agenda of economic liberalization, mega‑projects, and a more assertive regional foreign policy. Government allies argue that a decisive victory could help stabilize a country buffeted by war, inflation and ethnic violence, and that reforms are best managed from a position of clear authority.
Critics see the vote as another step in what one analyst calls “managed pluralism”: the appearance of multi‑party competition overlaid on a political order where real power rarely changes hands. They warn that repeating the pattern of near‑total dominance will deepen mistrust among marginalized communities and make peaceful alternation of power even harder in the future.
As ballots are cast and counted, the immediate story will be numbers: seats won, turnout claimed, constituencies where polls did not open. The longer‑term question, for Ethiopians and observers across Africa, is whether this election day marks a step toward easing the country’s multiple crises, or merely solidifies a status quo that many fear is unsustainable.