A series of reinforcing trends are likely to dominate the world over the next decade: Intensifying geopolitical struggle, slower and more uneven economic development, increasing technology disruption, growing climate, and resource concerns, and deepening social fragmentation. Together, these forces point to a 2026–2036 period defined less by a single “big shift” than by a prolonged age of competition and constraint, in which resilience and adaptability become central to national and corporate strategy.
Geopolitics: an “age of competition”
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 describes the coming decade as “the age of competition,” with intensifying rivalry over security, technology, energy, and narratives. The IMF likewise warns that war in the Middle East and “worsening geopolitical fragmentation” are major downside risks to its already downgraded growth outlook.
Analysts see three overlapping dynamics:
- Great‑power rivalry. U.S.–China competition spans trade, technology (especially AI and semiconductors), finance and military posture, particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea. Atlantic Council’s Global Foresight 2036 survey finds most strategists expect this rivalry to be the dominant driver of change.
- Fragmented blocs. PwC’s “fracturing world” megatrend highlights growing blocs and bypassed multilateralism, as sanctions, tariffs and security alignments reshape trade and finance. Bank of America’s megatrend analysis describes a bifurcating global economy into Eastern and Western spheres.
- Localized conflict and instability. The UN’s mid‑2026 economic outlook notes that conflict shocks, notably in the Middle East, are slowing growth, reigniting inflation, and straining developing economies through energy and food prices.
For the next ten years, this implies a more volatile, security‑aware global environment in which supply chains, data flows and capital move with greater attention to politics, not just efficiency.
Economy: slower growth, tighter constraints
Recent forecasts suggest the world economy is entering a period of structurally slower, more fragile growth. The UN projects global GDP growth at 2.5% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, “well below pre‑pandemic norms,” with shocks from war and energy markets reinforcing a subdued outlook. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook similarly sees global growth slowing to about 3.1% in 2026, with downside risks dominating.
Key trends include:
- High public debt. Bank of America’s megatrend report points to mounting sovereign debt, especially in advanced economies, constraining fiscal space and increasing pressure for higher interest rates and inflation.
- Debt stress in developing countries. The UN warns that rising borrowing costs and capital‑flow pressures are “deepening debt vulnerabilities,” limiting resources for development.
- More frequent shocks. Each new conflict or trade disruption now adds to already weakened economies from previous crises, complicating monetary and fiscal policy, the IMF notes.
This environment is likely to reward caution rather than aggressive growth, to steer capital towards robust and diversified business models and to keep the debate about inequality, taxation and social spending at the core of politics.
Technology: AI, automation and the ‘smart everything’ world
Technological front: AI and automation are the most transformative forces of the next decade, according to multiple studies.
McKinsey estimates that AI could add some $13 trillion to global output by 2030, boosting global GDP by about 1.2% a year. Bank of America’s “smart everything” megatrend estimates up to 500 billion connected devices by 2030 and an additional 3 billion people coming online, furthering digitalization. ACCE’s “10 trends for the next 10 years” survey similarly forecasts AI improvements across healthcare, agriculture, education, emergency management, transportation, and cybersecurity.
But the same reports highlight risks:
- Automation and jobs. Bank of America suggests robots and automation could displace up to 50% of jobs by 2035, raising major questions about reskilling and social protection.
- Splinternet and digital fragmentation. Competing standards, data regimes and censorship policies are likely to fragment the internet into partially incompatible ecosystems.
- AI as a geopolitical lever. Analysts see advantage in AI research and deployment as central to economic and military supremacy, particularly in U.S.–China competition.
For businesses and workers, these trends mean both new productivity frontiers and sharper transitions: some sectors will see gains from AI augmentation, while others face job redesign or displacement on an unprecedented scale.
Climate and resources: a hotter, more stressed planet
Climate change appears in nearly every megatrend analysis as a central, cross‑cutting risk. World Weather Attribution’s recent work on European heatwaves shows how quickly extremes are worsening, while Bank of America, PwC and EY all treat climate as a defining force of the coming decade.
Key elements:
- More frequent extremes. Heatwaves, droughts, floods, and storm surges are becoming more frequent and intense, with direct impacts on health, infrastructure, and agriculture.
- Resource Strain. Disruptions in fertilizer and energy are pushing up food and fuel prices, especially in developing economies, eroding real incomes, the UN outlook notes.
- Transition pressures. Governments will need to find huge investment in clean energy, resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions while at the same time balancing debt and social demands.
Global foresight surveys suggest that climate impacts will interact with migration, security, and inequality, shaping everything from where people live to how cities, insurers, and militaries plan.
Society and politics: inequality, aging and ‘disorder cycles’
Social and political trends will likely reinforce changes driven by economics and technology.
‘Demographic shifts’ and a ‘fracturing world’ where societies struggle to come together to address shared challenges, are part of PwC’s megatrends framework. As the rich-poor divide widens, Bank of America calls it “moral capitalism” as calls for redistribution and social justice grow louder. Similarly, EY’s megatrends overview highlights increasing demands for inclusive growth and resilience.
The specific pressures are:
- Inequality and polarization. Income and wealth inequality, both domestically and internationally, foster distrust of institutions and political polarization.
- Aging populations and the expectations of youth. As societies age, health and pension costs increase. Younger generations advocate for climate change, social expenditure, and diverse political goals .
- Civil unrest. Research cited by the WEF and NYU suggests that when economic stress coincides with institutional erosion, protest cycles and unrest are likely.
These dynamics will shape governance: governments under pressure may find it harder to sustain long‑term policies, even as those policies become more necessary in the face of slow growth and climate risk.
Interactions: why these trends are hard to manage
Each of these trends is significant on its own, but foresight work emphasizes that it is their interaction that will define the next decade.
PwC notes that “it’s the interaction between these megatrends that makes them particularly hard to deal with,” as technological disruption, climate change, demographic shifts and a fracturing world reinforce one another. The WEF similarly frames the 2026–2036 period as one where decision‑makers must balance immediate crises with longer‑term priorities in multiple domains at once.
Examples of interaction include:
- Geopolitical shocks (war, sanctions) feeding energy and food inflation, which intensify social strain and limit fiscal space.
- AI-driven productivity gains may offset slow growth but also displace jobs and stoke inequality if not accompanied by reskilling and safety nets.
- Climate extremes worsen migration and security problems, alter politics and regional cooperation.
The net result is an environment where resilience, the capacity to absorb shocks and adapt, becomes as significant as scale or speed.
What it means for the next ten years
For governments, these trends suggest the need to:
- More flexible policies that can respond to shocks without losing credibility.
- Resilience investments: health systems, social protection, climate adaptation, cybersecurity, energy security.
- International cooperation renewed in areas where fragmentation is costly: climate, financial stability, pandemic preparedness, and AI governance.
For business and investors, they say:
- Good risk management, scenario planning, diversified supply chains.
- Strategic AI & Automation Ethics & Workforce Transitions
- Climate Solutions Resilience technologies and services across the digital and social divide.
Over the next 10 years, progress will not be a straight line but rather a series of waves of change, where local decisions about solidarity, inclusion and adaptation will determine how global trends play out on the ground.