NEW YORK — The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its 2026–27 winter outlook, forecasting a generally mild season for much of the United States but identifying several regions where snowfall could run above normal.
The publication’s snow map points to the strongest potential for above-normal snowfall from central and southern New England through parts of the Appalachians, across the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest, and in Alaska.
For communities in those areas, the forecast will draw particular attention after recent winters marked by sudden cold outbreaks, damaging ice storms, heavy snow and sharp swings in temperature. But forecasters caution that such maps should not be read as a prediction of exact snow totals, the date of the first major storm or whether a particular city will experience a blizzard.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac offers long-range, regional projections based on historical climate patterns, solar activity, meteorology and climatology. The publication says its forecasts are intended to indicate broad tendencies, whether a season is likely to be colder, warmer, wetter, drier or snowier than average, rather than daily weather.
The official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook provides a different kind of guidance. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27.
That developing climate pattern could influence temperature and precipitation across the United States. But it does not guarantee that any individual state, county or town will have a certain number of snow days.
The key message for households, travelers and businesses is straightforward: the Almanac map identifies areas that may face a more active snow season, but local forecasts closer to winter will remain the most useful guide for practical decisions.
Where the snow map points
The Almanac’s broad map divides the United States into weather regions rather than making city-specific predictions. Its 2026–27 outlook identifies several places where snowfall is expected to be above normal or near to above normal.
The main areas include:
- Central and southern New England, especially the southern portion of the broader Northeast region
- The Appalachians, including higher elevations and parts of West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee
- The Intermountain West, including parts of Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Nevada
- The Pacific Northwest, particularly areas of Washington, Oregon and Idaho
- Alaska
The map does not depict a uniform national winter. Instead, it shows sharp regional contrasts.
Much of the country is expected to experience near-normal or above-normal temperatures, according to the Almanac, even in regions where snow is projected to be above average. That may seem contradictory, but it is not.
A winter can be warmer than its long-term average and still produce substantial snowfall. The difference often depends on the timing of storms and the interaction between cold air and moisture. Mountain regions, for example, can receive heavy snow even when nearby lower elevations experience rain or above-average temperatures. In the Northeast, a short but intense cold period coinciding with a moisture-rich coastal storm can produce major snowfall even if the season as a whole is relatively mild.
The Almanac’s forecast is therefore less about a constant winter freeze than about the potential for specific regions to receive more snow during the periods when conditions line up.
Northeast: A divided forecast
The Northeast is one of the most divided regions on the Almanac map.
Central and southern New England are expected to see colder-than-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall, particularly in areas stretching through parts of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire.
The publication identifies mid-December, late December, mid-January and early-to-late March as periods with greater potential for snow in the broader Northeast.
The forecast could be especially relevant to major population centers from Boston through New York’s northern suburbs and into parts of inland New England. But a seasonal regional forecast should not be read as a guarantee that every coastal city will see more snow than average.
Coastal snowfall depends on small differences in temperature. A storm that produces heavy snow in inland Connecticut or the Hudson Valley can bring cold rain or a rain-snow mix closer to the coast. A shift of only a few miles in a coastal storm’s track can make a major difference in accumulation.
Northern New England presents the opposite picture in the Almanac’s outlook. Maine and the northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire are projected to be milder and drier, with below-normal snowfall.
That contrast is important for ski areas, local governments and winter travelers. Southern and central portions of the region could face more difficult snow and ice conditions, while farther north may see less snowfall than usual despite their traditionally colder climate.
The Almanac describes the southern Northeast winter as potentially “more difficult,” a reference to the combination of below-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall.
Appalachians: Cold and snowy potential
The Appalachians are among the regions expected to face the most challenging winter conditions.
The Almanac calls for below-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall, particularly in the northern part of the Appalachian region.
The region includes parts of West Virginia, western Virginia, western Pennsylvania, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. In higher elevations, winter storms can produce substantial snow even when nearby valleys receive less accumulation or mixed precipitation.
The coldest periods are forecast for mid-January and mid-to-late February. The snowiest windows are expected in mid-January and early and late February.
For mountain communities, the outlook could matter for more than recreation.
Heavy snow can affect road access, power supply, emergency services, school schedules and deliveries. Rural areas with steep terrain or limited road networks may face greater disruption than urban centers, particularly if snow is followed by ice or a sharp temperature drop.
Ski resorts may see the forecast as encouraging, though seasonal outlooks cannot determine how often snow will arrive during holiday periods, weekends or key vacation weeks. Snowmaking capacity, temperatures and the timing of individual storms remain critical.
The forecast’s broad message is that residents and businesses in the Appalachian corridor should prepare for a winter with a meaningful risk of cold episodes and snow-related disruption.
West: Snow in a milder pattern
The Almanac expects much of the West to be warmer and wetter than normal, with several regions still receiving above-normal snowfall.
The Pacific Northwest is forecast to have above-normal temperatures, precipitation and snowfall. The snowiest periods are expected in late December, mid-January and mid-February.
For Washington, Oregon and Idaho, the outlook suggests a winter in which frequent Pacific moisture could support snow at higher elevations, while lower-elevation areas may experience more rain or mixed precipitation during milder periods.
That distinction is crucial. The Pacific Northwest’s ski regions can receive major snowfall when storms meet colder air at elevation, even if major cities along the coast remain wet rather than snowy.
The Intermountain region, covering much of Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Nevada, is also forecast to be warmer and wetter than average, with above-normal snowfall. The Almanac highlights late November, late December and early February as periods likely to bring the most snow.
That outlook may interest ski resorts, water managers, ranchers and communities that depend on mountain snowpack. Snowpack plays an important role in spring and summer water supplies across much of the West, although one seasonal outlook cannot reliably determine the final water-year outcome.
California’s mountain regions may also see near- to above-normal snowfall, according to the Almanac, even as the Pacific Southwest is expected to be generally warmer and wetter.
In contrast, the Desert Southwest, including much of Arizona and New Mexico, is forecast to be warmer and drier, with below-normal snowfall in locations that usually receive snow.
The High Plains are also expected to have above-normal temperatures, below-normal precipitation and below-normal snowfall, according to the Almanac.
Alaska and the Upper Midwest
Alaska is forecast to receive above-normal snowfall, even as temperatures there are expected to be milder than normal by regional standards. The Almanac points to snowier periods in mid-November, early and late January, mid-February and late March.
For Alaska, a mild seasonal temperature outlook still means winter conditions that can be extreme by the standards of the lower 48 states. The practical impact will vary widely by region, from coastal communities affected by wet snow and wind to interior locations where cold remains a dominant winter hazard.
The Upper Midwest forecast is more restrained.
Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are expected to begin winter relatively mild before turning colder than normal as the season progresses. Snowfall is projected to be near to below normal overall, though the Almanac says there may be several opportunities for snow in early and late January, late February and early March.
The Ohio Valley is expected to be colder than normal, with precipitation above normal in the east and below normal in the west. Yet the Almanac forecasts slightly below-normal snowfall overall for the region.
This is another reminder that cold does not automatically translate into above-average seasonal snowfall. A region needs both cold air and moisture at the right time. An area can have a cold winter that is relatively dry, or a mild winter that produces several major snowstorms.
El Niño complicates the picture
The 2026–27 outlook is especially difficult because the climate system is changing rapidly.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on Aug. 13 that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during fall and winter. NOAA’s models indicate a 69% chance that the October-to-December period could exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating to 1950.
El Niño refers to a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can influence weather patterns around the world by changing atmospheric circulation and the jet stream.
For the United States, El Niño can tilt the odds toward particular broad weather patterns. But its effects vary from event to event. A strong El Niño can increase the likelihood of wetter conditions in some regions and warmer conditions in others, but it cannot determine the path of every storm.
NOAA emphasizes this uncertainty. Even where the probability of an El Niño-linked impact is elevated, those impacts are not guaranteed.
The potential interaction between a strong El Niño and the polar vortex adds another layer of uncertainty. A disruption in the polar vortex can send Arctic air south into the United States, creating periods of intense cold and creating favorable conditions for snow if moisture is available.
But the timing, strength and location of those events cannot be confidently forecast months in advance.
What the official outlook says
NOAA’s seasonal outlook uses probabilities, not precise predictions.
Its December-through-February outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States, with parts of the Southwest, southern California and Alaska falling into areas of equal chances for above, near- or below-normal temperatures.
For precipitation, NOAA favors above-normal amounts across portions of the southern United States and parts of the West, while some northern areas lean toward near- or below-normal precipitation.
Importantly, NOAA’s seasonal maps do not forecast seasonal snowfall totals for most of the country. Snow depends on small-scale temperature variations and storm timing that are difficult to predict at a seasonal range.
A location can be in an above-normal precipitation area and still receive less snow than usual if temperatures are too warm. It can also receive above-normal snow from a few intense storms even if the overall winter is not especially wet.
This is why meteorologists often advise against treating long-range snow maps as operational forecasts.
USA TODAY reported that meteorologists generally give limited weight to annual almanac forecasts. Don Day, a meteorologist with Wyoming’s Cowboy State Daily, said detailed winter forecasting is not especially helpful until mid- to late September, when additional climate and atmospheric information is available.
How to use the forecast
The Old Farmer’s Almanac map can be useful as an early planning tool, especially for people who manage winter-sensitive activities.
It may help:
- Municipalities review snow-removal contracts and salt supplies
- Homeowners check heating systems, roof conditions and emergency kits
- Ski businesses begin staffing and inventory planning
- Travelers consider the possibility of winter disruption
- Farmers and water managers monitor mountain snow potential
- Retailers prepare for demand for winter equipment and supplies
But it should not determine whether someone books a flight for a particular weekend, buys snow tires immediately, expects a specific snow total or assumes a major storm is certain.
The most responsible approach is to use the Almanac’s map for broad awareness, then rely on National Weather Service forecasts and local meteorologists as winter approaches.
The bottom line
The Old Farmer’s Almanac expects a mostly mild U.S. winter overall, but its 2026–27 snow map identifies several regions with an above-normal snowfall signal: central and southern New England, the Appalachians, the Intermountain West, the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.
The map also points to important regional contrasts, including potentially snowier conditions in southern New England and less snow in parts of northern New England, as well as a snowy Intermountain West despite above-normal temperatures.
The strongest scientific climate signal heading into winter is the developing El Niño. NOAA says it has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong, increasing the odds of broader seasonal effects but not guaranteeing them in any particular community.
The practical takeaway is not that a severe winter is inevitable. It is that snow-prone regions should begin preparing early, follow updated official outlooks through fall and pay closest attention to short-range forecasts when winter weather begins to arrive.